Who we think wins each game, next to what Vegas thinks.
EPA per play is how many points a team adds, on average, each snap. On offense higher is better; on defense it is what opponents gain, so lower is better. Ranks are out of 32 (1st is best), from each team's recent games with the latest weighted most.
Swap a starting QB, mark players out, and set how well each unit plays. Each team's run game, pass game, run defense and pass defense are rated in percent of their normal yards per play (a defense at 90% allows 10% more). A player out lowers the units his position touches by a default - what an absence at that position has cost teams in results, scaled by how much he plays - and you can type over it for any player ("run game at 50% without him") or set a whole unit outright. The yards become points and the points become win chance, the same way Vegas turns point spreads into odds. A QB swap reruns our model with that QB's rating; "Average starter" and "an average regular" cover anyone not listed. Players follow their current roster. Last week's view replays the games with only what we knew before kickoff, so you can test your settings against how they finished.
What we calculate and what feeds the models: every team's season, team ratings and units, and players' season views. Our picks are on the Picks and Player Props tabs.
Every team's season, week by week. A green circle is a win and a red cross a loss; the darker the ink, the bigger the margin (three scores or more is the deepest). Pick a team to unfold its schedule.
Every team ranked by net EPA per play - points added per play on offense minus points allowed per play on defense. Pick a team to see its profile below; pick a second to compare the two.
Each player's season so far, blending all his games with his last 8 and last 4 so recent games count more. vs. defenses faced credits production against tough defenses more and against soft ones less, based on what each defense he faced allowed to his position all season. Click a heading to sort.
How strong each team's units are, on a scale where 100 is league average and higher is always stronger (like OPS+ or ERA+). Every 30 points is about one standard deviation: 130 is top-six territory, 160 is elite, 70 and 40 the same distance below. Each number is points added (or allowed) per play. By default recent games count more (reaching back into last season) and each unit is adjusted for the strength of the opponents it has faced - the combination that best predicted the next game over 2017-2026; switch either off to see this season's games counted equally, or unadjusted. QB+ is the QB listed to start this week, so a backup starting shows up here. Tap a column to sort.
Each game, with each offense's edge against the defense it faces. Passing differential: the average of the team's QB+ and Receiving+, minus the opponent's Pass D+. Rushing differential: its Rushing+ minus the opponent's Run D+. Higher is a friendlier matchup for that offense; +30 or more (green) is a gap of a standard deviation, −30 or less (red) the same the other way. Most lopsided games first.
Winning isn't the only measure of success - winning for the money is. Each team's season is measured against its own league year. Spending is summed from OverTheCap's player contracts, 2014 on: cash paid (what teams actually paid, signing bonuses counted when paid - it varies most) or cap spending (the cap charges; the hard cap keeps everyone close). Dead money - players since released - isn't included. Effectiveness above 1 means a team bought more wins per dollar than the league did; expected wins are what the seasons that spent most like it won (any earlier season, from 2015).
Several published college big boards for the next NFL draft, blended into one ranking. Players already drafted are left out. Updates weekly.
Players with the friendliest matchups for receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards, passing yards and sacks, based on their recent games and how much their opponent gives up. We don't check these against sportsbook lines, so treat them as places to look, not sure bets. Updates weekly. The chart shows how far each projection sits from the player's own average; each card shows his recent games against our number and why we lean the way we do. Prefer a grid? Switch to the table.
The fewest each of the 32 busiest players at each position has put up in a single game this season, zeros included, with his average underneath. If a receiver's catches go 5, 6, 4, his floor is 4.
Games a player left injured don't count; the Note column says which week was skipped. Click a column heading to sort.